Bettors have witnessed an amazing transfer in early wagering for the AFC championship line forward of Sunday’s showdown between the Bengals and Chiefs.
Since Sunday evening’s opening quantity was launched by SI Sportsbook, Cincinnati has flipped from 1.5-point underdogs to 1.5-point highway favorites. There are a large number of causes for the dramatic shift, none greater than the standing of Patrick Mahomes’s injured ankle.
The Bengals and Chiefs will face off within the AFC championship recreation for the second straight yr. Final season, Cincinnati upset Kansas Metropolis, 27-24, as seven-point highway favorites, cashing for bettors on the moneyline at +255 odds. The query for bettors this time is: Can Mahomes play at an elite degree regardless of the ankle damage?
Joe Burrow improved to 5-1 (83.3%) straight-up (SU) and towards the unfold (ATS) in playoff video games after Cincinnati’s 27-10 upset of the Payments final week within the divisional spherical as six-point highway underdogs. The Bengals prolonged their profitable streak to 10 video games by cashing for bettors at +220 moneyline odds and travels again to Arrowhead seeking to develop into AFC champions in back-to-back seasons.
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The Bengals have posted a particularly worthwhile 8-1-1 ATS mark for bettors throughout this 10-game profitable streak. Burrow, who’s 3-0 SU and ATS in three profession video games versus Mahomes, will head to Arrowhead Stadium for the primary time favored to beat a participant doubtless headed for league MVP honors for the second time in his six-year profession. The 2 golf equipment met as soon as this season again in Week 13 with Cincinnati rising with a 27-24 win as 2.5-point residence underdogs.
Kansas Metropolis, the 1-seed within the AFC, held on to beat the AFC’s 4-seed Jacksonville, 27-20, final Saturday. Andy Reid’s membership closed as the largest favourite of the divisional spherical and as soon as once more prevented bettors from cashing in on the membership’s fifteenth win of the season. Kansas Metropolis dropped to a paltry 1-7-1 (12.5%) ATS at Arrowhead Stadium, whereas falling to a disappointing 5-12-1 (29.4%) versus the quantity general.
The Chiefs will host their NFL file fifth consecutive AFC title recreation and head into the showdown with the Bengals on a six-game profitable streak, whereas boasting a 11-1 file over their final 12 video games. Nevertheless, the Bengals are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS over their final eight conferences versus the Chiefs courting again to 2008.
Heading into championship Sunday, revered cash info from Vegas info has helped the SI Betting group go 9-4 on participant proposition wagers and 6-1 on teaser investments since Week 18!
The data is up 6.6 items within the NFL playoffs, leaving us with a revenue of +12.65 items on the season in NFL wagering right here at Sports activities Illustrated.
Let’s dive into the AFC Championship!
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs AFC Championship Sport Odds
Unfold: Cincinnati -1.5 (-110) | Kansas Metropolis +1.5 (-110)Moneyline: CIN (-125) | KC (+105)Complete: 46.5 – Over (-110) | Underneath (-110)Public (Unfold) Betting Percentages: CIN 86% | KC 14percentGame Data: Jan. 29, 2023 | 6:30 pm ET | CBS
Bengals Straight-Up Report: 14-4
Bengals Towards The Unfold Report: 13-4-1
Chiefs Straight-Up Report: 15-3
Chiefs Towards The Unfold Report: 5-12-1
Guess on Bengals-Chiefs at SI Sportsbook
Odss and Betting InsightsCincinnati Offense vs. Kansas Metropolis Protection
Burrow Prospers vs. Chiefs
The Bengals completed the common season with the league’s fifth-best passing assault (265 yards per recreation) and discover a favorable matchup versus a Chiefs’ protection that has surrendered 38 whole touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
After limiting Trevor Lawrence to 1 landing go final week, Kansas Metropolis has solely allowed a number of landing passes in three of its final eight video games.
Nevertheless, will the membership be capable to decelerate Burrow, who has dominated them in three conferences during the last two seasons? The previous Heisman winner has thrived when going through Mahomes and the Chiefs, throwing for 982 yards and eight touchdowns, whereas including one speeding rating within the three matchups.
– Mixon Produces In Divisional Spherical
Joe Mixon exploded for his simply his second 100-yard-plus speeding recreation of the season within the win over Buffalo. The versatile again, who headed into the divisional spherical averaging simply 38 speeding yards per recreation over his earlier 4 video games, ran for a game-high 105 yards, whereas including a landing.
Mixon has rushed for 183 yards, whereas hauling in 13 receptions for 68 yards in three profession video games towards the Chiefs. The veteran again didn’t clear concussion protocol for the Week 13 recreation, opening the door for Samaje Perine to shine. The backup tailback rushed for 106 yards, whereas grabbing six receptions for 49 yards.
– Chase Continues To Shine
Ja’Marr Chase, who has scored 9 touchdowns over his final 9 video games, has been in peak type since coming back from a hip damage earlier this season. The star wideout has hauled in 25 receptions for 417 yards and 4 touchdowns in three profession video games towards the Chiefs. In six profession playoff video games, Chase has been dynamic by averaging 6.5 receptions per reception, 85.5 receiving yards and recording three touchdowns. His ‘Anytime Landing’ market with -105 odds will probably be a major goal of participant proposition bettors.
Kansas Metropolis Offense vs. Cincinnati Protection
– How Wholesome Is Mahomes?
Mahomes has guided the NFL’s finest passing assault averaging 297.8 yards per recreation, however will his injured ankle forestall his regular immense manufacturing?
The star signal-caller, who owns a 40-10 file (80%) within the common season and playoffs in his profession at Arrowhead, will face a Twenty third-ranked Bengals’ go protection permitting 229.1 passing yards per recreation. Mahomes was held to simply 223 yards passing and one landing within the regular-season matchup. Nevertheless, he was in a position so as to add a speeding rating from three yards out on the bottom.
The front-runner for the 2022 NFL MVP has been sensational within the postseason, boasting a 9-3 file. He averages 298 passing yards and 27.6 speeding yards, whereas throwing 30 touchdowns and including 5 speeding scores.
– Can Kansas Metropolis’s Run Sport Lead The Approach?
Kansas Metropolis’s working recreation, which ranks twentieth (115.9 yards per recreation), has witnessed the duo of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon develop into integral items within the offense.
Pacheco, who shined in his first profession playoff recreation by speeding for 95 yards and a landing, discovered success within the first assembly towards the Bengals by amassing 82 whole yards and a landing.
Whereas the rookie has taken over the bell cow work on the bottom, the veteran McKinnon has scored eight receiving touchdowns over his final seven video games due to turning into considered one of Mahomes’s prime weapons within the aerial assault. McKinnon gained 51 yards on the bottom, whereas additionally hauling in two receptions for 9 yards and a landing within the first matchup.
The savvy tailback, who has zero receiving yards in his final two video games, might want to show his pass-catching abilities towards a Bengals’ protection that has allowed 4.61 receptions per recreation to working backs.
– Which Kelce Emerges?
The Chiefs’ offense performs at a peak degree when Reid’s scheme closely depends on Travis Kelce. The star tight finish, who led the Chiefs in targets (152), receptions (110), receiving yards (1,338) and touchdowns (12) within the common season, was dominant final week towards the Jaguars, grabbing a game-high 14 receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns.
Within the Week 13 assembly, Kelce made simply 4 receptions for 56 yards. In 5 profession video games (together with playoffs) versus Cincinnati, the veteran is barely averaging 64 receiving yards per recreation whereas discovering the top zone simply twice.
On the flip facet, Kelce is a postseason star, averaging 86.8 receiving yards, whereas catching 14 touchdowns in 16 playoff video games. In 4 AFC title video games, the league’s finest tight finish has averaged 7.3 receptions whereas including 4 touchdowns.
Participant proposition bettors might want to determine which Kelce exhibits up: the one who has solely produced modest numbers versus the Bengals or the elite participant who dominates within the postseason?
Cincinnati vs. Kansas Metropolis Finest Guess
Mahomes, who’s 9-3 in playoff video games, is listening to all week how he has by no means crushed Burrow in three matchups and that may function an additional motivating issue. Profitable at an 80% clip at residence, mixed with a 7-1-1 ATS file as an underdog, leads us to investing within the plus-odds provided on the moneyline.
With the whole world backing a red-hot Burrow versus a hobbled Mahomes, sportsbooks are doubtless headed for his or her largest legal responsibility of the NFL season. On this state of affairs, it’s usually profitable to align your self with the wants of the home whereas being reverse the huge public steam. Merely backing that angle, lands you on a No. 1 seed who’s 8-1 SU at residence this season.
BEST BET: Kansas Metropolis Moneyline (+105)
TrendsThe Bengals are 10-0 SU and 8-1-1 ATS over their final 10 gamesKansas Metropolis is 8-1 SU however simply 1-7-1 ATS at residence this seasonCincinnati is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS during the last eight conferences vs. Chiefs Burrow is 3-0 SU and ATS in his profession vs. MahomesBurrow is 5-1 SU and ATS in six profession playoff gamesMahomes is 7-1-1 ATS in his profession as an underdogKansas Metropolis is 6-3 ATS in its final 9 residence playoff gamesThe beneath is 6-1 in Kansas Metropolis’s final seven residence gamesThe beneath is 6-3-1 in Cincinnati’s 10 highway video games this season
2022 Revered Cash NFL at SI Betting: 43-36-1 ATS + Props +12.65 U
2021 Revered Cash NFL at SI Betting: 33-27-1 ATS + Props +9.75 U
2021 Revered Cash NFL at SI Betting: 53-44-1 ATS + Props +14.22 U
2020 Revered Cash NFL at SI Betting: 72-58-1 ATS (55%)