Wed. Feb 1st, 2023

The convention championship spherical of the NFL playoffs is lastly right here! The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles will sq. off at 3 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports activities App this Sunday, whereas the Cincinnati Bengals will journey to Arrowhead Stadium to tackle the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at 6:30 p.m. ET.

Will Patrick Mahomes get his first win in opposition to Joe Burrow? Can Kyle Shanahan make his second Tremendous Bowl in simply six seasons as a head coach? Will Jalen Hurts lead the Eagles again to the massive present for the primary time for the reason that 2017 season? With so many intriguing storylines in every sport, it is a weekend that needs to be one to recollect. 

Trying forward, FOX Sports activities researched how groups have carried out in opposition to the unfold (ATS) and straight up (SU) in varied conditions within the convention championship spherical. We additionally appeared into a number of team- and player-specific notes that ought to assist provide you with a possible playing edge this Sunday. Let’s dive into the perfect betting developments and notes that caught out.

Mahomes a canine?

Whereas this line has flipped a number of instances for the reason that divisional-round weekend, FOX Wager at present has the Chiefs as one-point underdogs in opposition to the Bengals regardless of the sport going down at Arrowhead Stadium. This marks the primary time in Patrick Mahomes’ complete profession that he’s an underdog within the postseason. A lot of the road motion has to do with the ankle damage the previous MVP sustained in opposition to the Jacksonville Jaguars, nevertheless it’s nonetheless a shock nonetheless. Particularly contemplating simply how dominant the signal-caller has been since being drafted by Kansas Metropolis.

Beneath is an outline of how Mahomes has carried out in varied conditions all through his profession, each in opposition to the unfold (ATS) and straight up (SU):

Mahomes’ largest underdog unfold was 4.5 factors on the street in a Week 2 matchup vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018; Chiefs received 42-37Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 SU as a starter as an underdog in his profession, with the Over hitting in six of these gamesMahomes has solely been a house underdog simply as soon as, being 2.5-point underdogs vs. the Payments in Week 6 of this season; Kansas Metropolis didn’t cowl and misplaced straight up (Below hit)Mahomes is 24-24 ATS and 39-9 SU as a starter at house, with the Below hitting in 26 of these video games (common season and playoffs)Mahomes is 6-4 ATS and 8-2 SU as a starter at house within the playoffs, with the Over hitting in six of these gamesMahomes has met Joe Burrow thrice in his profession, dropping all three contests (together with playoffs); the one different quarterback at hand Mahomes that many losses is Tom Brady, who did so in six video games

Brock Purdy faces his greatest take a look at in opposition to Eagles protection and crowd

Colin Cowherd predicts how Purdy will carry out in opposition to a tricky staff and crowd.

Brock Purdy appears to be like to make historical past 

Whereas Mahomes has been dominating the headlines together with his damage standing, let’s not overlook the unbelievable run Brock Purdy has been on since taking on for the 49ers because the full-time starter. 

Here’s a fast abstract of the information he can break with a win in opposition to the Eagles on Sunday:

Can be the primary rookie quarterback to make the Tremendous BowlWould break the report for many wins in a single postseason by a rookie quarterbackWould break the report for many profession postseason wins by a quarterback drafted within the seventh roundWould be the primary rookie quarterback to win a convention championship sport

That final observe is one thing to level out, as 4 different rookie quarterbacks earlier than him could not get it achieved within the convention title sport, with Mark Sanchez (2009), Joe Flacco (2008), Ben Roethlisberger (2004) and Shaun King (1999) all dropping on this state of affairs. These 4 mixed for 4 passing touchdowns and a whopping 9 interceptions. 

It is value mentioning that Purdy is 6-1 ATS (85.7%) and simply one in all simply two rookie signal-callers to win every of his first seven begins for the reason that 1970 merger (Roethlisberger received 13 straight in 2004). And, whereas this may come as a shock, rookie quarterbacks went an astounding 23-9 ATS (71.9%) and 21-11 SU (65.6%) this season (together with the playoffs).

Since taking on in Week 14, he leads the complete league in quarterback wins (seven), move yards per try (9.0), passer ranking (116.0) and ranks second in passing touchdowns in that span (14). San Francisco can be within the midst of a 12-game win streak, the second longest in franchise historical past. Whereas historical past may not be on Purdy’s aspect, he could possibly be the primary rookie to get it achieved within the convention title sport.

Kyle Shanahan is dominant ATS within the playoffs

FOX Wager at present has Purdy and the 49ers as 2.5-point underdogs on the street, however coach Kyle Shanahan’s elite teaching may be sufficient to get the job achieved. He’s tied with Doug Pederson for the perfect cowl fee of any coach all-time within the playoffs, with a minimal of 5 playoff video games coached. Each of them are 7-1 ATS (87.5%), which means Shanahan has an opportunity to maneuver into sole possession of the highest cowl fee ought to they cowl (or win) in opposition to the Eagles. He is additionally 6-2 SU (75%) within the postseason, together with his solely losses coming in final 12 months’s NFC title sport and the Tremendous Bowl in 2020. 

Together with the playoffs, Shanahan is 29-20 ATS (59.1%) and 21-28 SU (42.9%) as an underdog in his head-coaching profession.

No. 1 seeds battle ATS, Overs hit

The highest seed within the convention championship spherical has a robust historical past of successful it doesn’t matter what time-frame you take into account. As seen under, when taking a look at intervals of 10 seasons, the bottom win proportion for the 1-seed on this spherical is 69.6% when going again to the 1990 season. In case you return to only the final 12 seasons (since 2010), the win fee jumps as much as a whopping 75%. Nonetheless, the 1-seed has barely coated the unfold for the reason that 2000 season, simply eclipsing the 50% mark. 

From the info under, the strongest development is how typically the Over hits. In each 10-season interval, the Over dominates. Going again to the 1990 season, the Over has hit in 28 of 46 convention title video games with only one push – a 62.2% hit fee.

Since 2010, the 1-seed is 9-7 ATS (56.3%) and 12-4 SU (75%) within the convention championship spherical, with the Over hitting in 9 of these video games (one push)Since 2000, the 1-seed is 16-14 ATS (53.3%) and 22-8 SU (73.3%) within the convention championship spherical, with the Over hitting in 18 of these video games (one push)Since 1990, the 1-seed is 24-22 ATS (52.2%) and 32-14 SU (69.6%) within the convention championship spherical, with the Over hitting in 28 of these video games (one push)Since 1980, the 1-seed is 36-26 ATS (58.1%) 45-17 SU (72.6%) within the convention championship spherical; Over/Below knowledge is barely out there for 53 of these video games, Over hit in 31 of them (one push)

No. 3 seed traditionally struggles

Whereas the Bengals may at present be favorites, historical past isn’t on their aspect as a 3-seed. Within the Tremendous Bowl period, the 3-seed is 7-9 ATS (43.8%) and 4-12 SU (25%) within the convention championship sport. The one 4 groups to make it to the Tremendous Bowl as a 3-seed are the 1979 Rams, the 1987 Washington staff, the 2003 Carolina Panthers and the 2006 Indianapolis Colts. To be honest, the playoffs expanded to 10 groups in 1978 and to 12 in 1990, so to account for this, we examined how 3-seeds carried out within the divisional spherical as nicely. The outcomes have been comparable, as they went 26-35-2 ATS (42.6%) and 16-47 SU (25.4%) within the Tremendous Bowl period.    

newer time frames, 3-seeds have gone 5-2 ATS (71.4%) and 2-5 SU (28.6%) within the convention title sport since 2000. The 2 groups that received in that span are talked about above (2003 Panthers, 2006 Colts).

So are you prepared to position some NFL convention championship bets? Head over to FOX Wager now for all of your wagers! 

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