Fri. Dec 9th, 2022

And similar to that, it is Thanksgiving. We’re almost two-thirds of the best way by the 2022 common season and we are able to now deal with ourselves to slightly little bit of turkey and stuffing to rejoice. We even have an excellent trio of video games on Thanksgiving Day to sink our tooth into as soon as the tryptophan kicks in and we submerge into our couches.

In fact, a couple of of these Thanksgiving video games have made their means into my 5 locks of the week for Week 12 together with a couple of different video games on deck afterward this weekend, which embrace a “Monday Night time Soccer” matchup and a group we’re backing that’s laying double digits at dwelling. 

2022 file

Common season
Locks of the Week ATS: 25-26-4
ATS: 72-86-6
ML: 97-67

All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook.

Newest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys
-10

This has the makings of a Cowboys rout, nearly in an identical trend to Dallas’ 40-3 win over Minnesota just some days in the past. New York confirmed some cracks in its basis within the loss to Detroit and misplaced a number of key contributors, together with prime cornerback Adoree’ Jackson. That ought to enable the Cowboys offense to proceed to hum, however it’s their protection that would actually put the sport away. The Giants are permitting the second-highest strain fee (45%) within the NFL this season, whereas the Cowboys are making use of essentially the most strain to opposing quarterbacks within the league. In Week 3, Dallas pressured Daniel Jones 27 instances within the win, which is the third-most of any recreation this season. With the Giants as banged up as they’re and Dallas taking part in at a championship-caliber degree, they’re going to win this by double digits. 

Projected rating: Cowboys 30, Giants 20
The decide: Cowboys -9.5

Newest Odds:

Miami Dolphins
-14

The Texans might very properly make a change at quarterback earlier than or throughout this recreation, however the view of this matchup largely stays the identical. Miami is coming off its Week 11 bye and is at present the No. 2 seed within the AFC and are nonetheless undefeated (7-0) when Tua Tagovailoa performs a whole recreation. Exhausting Rock Stadium has additionally been type to the Dolphins as of late as they’re 8-3 ATS of their final 11 dwelling video games. The Dolphins have already proven us that they will pile up factors, scoring 30 or extra within the three video games main into the bye and there isn’t any motive to suppose they will not get there once more as they face a Texans protection that ranks twenty ninth in DVOA. In the meantime, Houston’s offense hasn’t exceeded 20 factors since Week 7. 

Projected rating: Dolphins 33, Texans 17
The decide: Dolphins -13

Newest Odds:

Indianapolis Colts
-2.5

Sure, I am cussed. I’ve pale the Colts the final two weeks in my locks and Jeff Saturday has burned me each instances. Effectively, I am going again to the properly once more which can be trigger to name me clinically insane, however the Steelers are the membership to again on this spot. Pittsburgh ought to be capable of apply strain on Matt Ryan as Indy’s O-line did present a couple of cracks, permitting strain on 11.1% of Ryan’s dropbacks on Sunday in opposition to Philadelphia. In the meantime, the Steelers blitz as a lot as any group within the league coming into Week 12, which implies T.J. Watt ought to feast with this favorable matchup. On prime of that, Pittsburgh’s run-defense ranks prime 10 within the NFL in DVOA, which suggests the unit has the potential of slowing down Jonathan Taylor. 

Projected rating: Steelers 23, Colts 21
The decide: Steelers +2.5

Newest Odds:

Detroit Lions
+9.5

The Lions have been rolling the previous few weeks, however I simply have a tough time betting in opposition to Josh Allen with this line below double figures. Sure, Detroit’s protection has performed higher in its earlier three video games, however that was in opposition to the Packers, Bears and Giants. Buffalo’s offense is a special animal fully. Allen has traditionally performed properly on Thanksgiving because the Payments are 2-0 SU in each video games and the QB registered a 100+ passer score in every contest. Whereas I imagine Buffalo’s offense can get into the 30s indoors at Ford Discipline, I do not see the Lions doing that on this setting. Particularly, I’ve my doubts due to the safety in entrance of Jared Goff. Detroit grades because the Twenty fourth-ranked pass-blocking group within the NFL this season, in accordance with Professional Soccer Focus. In the meantime, Buffalo is the third-best cross rush group within the league below the identical grading system. 

Projected rating: Payments 33, Lions 21
The decide: Payments -9.5

Newest Odds:

Cleveland Browns
+3.5

Tampa Bay did appear to show a nook simply earlier than the bye. After rallying to beat the Rams in Week 9 after which edging out the Seahawks — who have been a 2.5-point favourite — in Germany, it does really feel just like the Bucs are on the verge of totally righting the ship. They ran the ball properly in Week 10 (161 yards on 44 makes an attempt) and Tom Brady appeared sharp along with his complement of receivers wholesome. In the meantime, they get a Browns group that could be in for a letdown after giving the Payments a run for his or her cash on Sunday and are on the doorstep of getting Deshaun Watson again subsequent week. Since Kevin Stefanski arrived in Cleveland, the membership is 17-26 ATS, which is the second worst ATS mark within the NFL over that span. 

Projected rating: Buccaneers 27, Browns 20
The decide: Buccaneers -3.5

Remainder of the bunch

Patriots at Vikings
Projected rating: Vikings 24, Patriots 17
The decide: Vikings -2.5

Bengals at Titans
Projected rating: Titans 24, Bengals 23
The decide: Titans +1.5

Bears at Jets
Projected rating: Jets 26, Bears 20
The decide: Jets -4.5

Falcons at Commanders
Projected rating: Commanders 26, Falcons 20
The decide: Commanders -4.5

Broncos at Panthers
Projected rating: Panthers 23, Broncos 17
The decide: Panthers +2.5

Ravens at Jaguars
Projected rating: Jaguars 24, Ravens 23
The decide: Jaguars +4

Chargers at Cardinals
Projected rating: Chargers 30, Cardinals 23
The decide: Chargers -4.5

Raiders at Seahawks
Projected rating: Seahawks 27, Raiders 23
The decide: Seahawks -3.5

Rams at Chiefs
Projected rating: Chiefs 30, Rams 20
The decide: Rams +14.5

Saints at 49ers
Projected rating: 49ers 30, Saints 23
The decide: Saints +9

Packers at Eagles
Projected rating: Eagles 33, Packers 23
The decide: Eagles -7

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