Mon. Nov 28th, 2022

It is Thanksgiving Week and everyone knows what which means round right here: As a substitute of soccer picks, I’ll share all my favourite Thanksgiving recipes with you! 

Really, that is a lie. I’ve no recipes. I’ve by no means cooked a turkey in my life, I’ve by no means been inside 5 toes of a inexperienced bean casserole and I am not even positive how mashed potatoes are made. I feel you simply get potatoes and mash them, however I am unable to say that with 100% certainty. 

My favourite Thanksgiving recipe is any recipe that entails wine, as a result of I can simply pour it in a glass and devour it with out really cooking something. Talking of ingesting wine, I really feel like I ought to donate a bottle to each Jets followers alive to assist them recover from what occurred on Sunday. After a demoralizing loss like that, I am undecided I can ever decide them to win once more. 

I do not wish to make Jets followers sadder than they already are, so let’s simply get to the picks. 

Really, earlier than we get to the Week 12 picks, this is a fast reminder you could take a look at the weekly picks from each NFL professional by clicking right here. Additionally, as chances are you’ll or could not know, I am in command of the NFL e-newsletter right here at, which I am solely telling you about as a result of it makes the proper vacation present and it additionally brings folks collectively. For example, if you cannot be with your loved ones for Thanksgiving, then simply signal them up for the e-newsletter after which you’ll be able to learn it collectively on daily basis and it’ll really feel such as you’re in the identical room as them, besides not likely. To subscribe, all you must do is click on right here and enter an e-mail tackle. 

On high of the e-newsletter, I additionally do a podcast three days per week with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson, AKA two guys who’ve by no means invited me over for Thanksgiving. Thanks guys. I believed we had been mates. Though the shortage of a Thanksgiving invite undoubtedly makes issues awkward after we’re round one another, I nonetheless be a part of them each Monday, Tuesday and Friday on the Decide Six podcast, which is our every day NFL podcast right here at Brinson and I really got here up with some early finest bets for Week 12 and you’ll take heed to these under (Our early finest bets for Week 11 went 4-0 and since we’ll clearly get each recreation proper once more, you need to in all probability hear). 

Alright, let’s get to the Turkey Day version of the picks. 

NFL Week 12 Picks

Buffalo (7-3) at Detroit (4-6)

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Recreation | Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Payments

I’ve seen the film “Stepbrothers” sufficient occasions to know when two individuals are turning into finest mates and it undoubtedly looks like the Payments and Lions have gotten finest mates. I imply, for one, the Lions had been sort sufficient to let the Payments borrow their home over the weekend. The Lions might have simply put their place up on AirBNB, however as an alternative, they let the Payments have it without cost and it ended up figuring out properly for everybody concerned.  

And let me simply say, I am glad to see that the Lions set some floor guidelines. All the time set floor guidelines. 

These groups possible will not be finest mates after this recreation and that is as a result of I am anticipating issues to get form of loopy. On paper, this looks like a recreation that the Lions have zero likelihood to win, but when I’ve discovered one factor in my life about selecting NFL video games, it is that groups all the time appear to win while you suppose they’ve zero likelihood to win, particularly once they’re coached by a man who’s most well-known quote entails biting kneecaps off. I do not know what Dan Campbell eats at his home on Thanksgiving Day, however there is a 50% likelihood it is kneecaps. 

The massive downside on this recreation for the Lions is that they’ve one of many worst defenses within the NFL this 12 months and so they’ll be enjoying a Payments offense that has been among the finest. The Lions have given up probably the most yards per recreation and probably the most factors per recreation and that is undoubtedly not an excellent mixture when the crew you are enjoying ranks second in each factors scored and yards per recreation. 

If this recreation had been performed 4 weeks in the past, I would in all probability have picked the Payments by 30, however the Lions are all of a sudden one of many hottest groups in soccer. For those who mix that with the truth that the Payments have been in a slight offensive rut, that is the recipe for a recreation that might go all the way down to the wire. I advised you we might speak about recipes. 

The decide: Payments 30-27 over Lions 

N.Y. Giants (7-3) at Dallas (7-3)

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)

Featured Recreation | Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

I do not suppose the Giants are going to forfeit on Thursday, however truthfully, they may wish to a minimum of contemplate that choice as a result of I am not fully positive that they will have sufficient gamers to discipline a crew. The Giants had been already banged up on the season after which issues bought even worse in Week 11 with 5 gamers being dominated out throughout their loss to the Lions. 

Because of these accidents, their damage report is now longer than a CVS receipt. 

After studying the names on that tweet, I’ve to say, it might need simply been simpler to record the gamers who aren’t injured. If I am the Giants, I am calling up the NFL and asking them to postpone the sport till March. Would that throw all the NFL season off? Sure, however I really feel like ready 4 months is the one means the Giants will be capable to get wholesome sufficient to win this recreation. 

When these two groups met again in Week 3, the Cowboys gained 23-16 and that was with Cooper Rush. In that recreation, the Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones 5 occasions and picked him off as soon as and I feel we’ll see extra of the identical on Thursday. The Cowboys have gained 10 of the previous 11 video games on this collection and I do not see that domination ending this week. 

That is the primary time these two groups have performed on Thanksgiving since 1992. Thirty years in the past, the Cowboys destroyed the Giants 30-3 after which went on to win the Tremendous Bowl two months later. I am not saying that is going to occur this 12 months, however I am not not saying that. 

The decide: Cowboys 31-17 over Giants

New England (6-4) at Minnesota (8-2)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) 

Featured Recreation | Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots

The oddsmakers in Vegas should’ve began taking some Thanksgiving tequila pictures earlier than they made this level unfold as a result of that is the one method to clarify why the Vikings have opened as a THREE-POINT favourite on this recreation. I am undecided in the event that they’ve appeared on the schedule for Thanksgiving, however this recreation is being performed in prime time and if there’s one quarterback within the NFL who you’ll be able to’t belief in prime time, it is undoubtedly Kirk Cousins. I’d belief my two-year-old daughter to make a complete Thanksgiving dinner utilizing a damaged Simple-Bake oven earlier than I would belief Cousins to win a prime-time recreation. 

Cousins’ nickname ought to be the “early window surprise” as a result of when he performs within the early 1 p.m. window, he by no means loses. Nevertheless, for those who drive him to play in a recreation that kicks off previous his bedtime — I am assuming he goes to mattress at 8 p.m. each evening — it virtually all the time ends in a catastrophe for his crew. In his previous eight prime-time video games, Cousins has gone 3-5, however two of these wins have come in opposition to the Bears, so I am not even positive they rely. 

I do know what you are considering, soccer is a crew recreation so I should not blame Cousins for these losses, however I’ll as a result of he is thrown 10 interceptions in these eight video games. In his solely prime-time look this season, he threw three interceptions in a 24-7 loss to the Eagles again in Week 2. 

Additionally, he’ll be going up in opposition to the Patriots and the one factor uglier than his prime-time document is his document in opposition to Invoice Belichick. Cousins is 0-2 all-time in opposition to the Patriots, he is thrown a complete of three interceptions in these video games and his crew has by no means scored greater than 10 factors. 

Oh, and did I point out that proven fact that the Vikings will not have their beginning left sort out on Thursday evening, as a result of they will not have their beginning left sort out on Thursday evening. 

To rehash, the Vikings are lacking a key offensive lineman, Cousins is horrible in prime time and Invoice Belichick is not going to wish to eat any turkey for Thanksgiving as a result of I’ve a sense his protection goes to eat Cousins alive. 

For those who’re questioning how properly the Patriots protection has been enjoying these days, simply contemplate this: They have not surrendered a landing this ENTIRE MONTH. It is formally no landing November for New England’s protection and if there’s one factor I’ve observed in regards to the NFL, it is that it is arduous to beat a crew that is not giving up touchdowns. 

The final time the Patriots performed on Thanksgiving got here in 2012 when the soccer Gods gave us the butt-fumble, and with Kirk Cousins enjoying in prime time in opposition to a troublesome protection, I will not be shocked if we see one thing equally absurd on Thursday evening. By the best way, blissful 10-year anniversary to the butt-fumble. 

The decide: Patriots 23-16 over Vikings

Cincinnati (6-4) at Tennessee (7-3)

1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Featured Recreation | Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Of all of the video games being performed in Week 12, that is undoubtedly the one I am most enthusiastic about. As a matter of reality, when the NFL schedule got here out in Might, this was the primary recreation I circled on my calendar, however solely as a result of my household made me. First, they purchased me a calendar after which they circled the sport. I am guessing they did this as a result of my whole household is made up of Bengals followers and since I reside in Nashville, that is the one week per 12 months the place they get to make use of me for a free place to remain. 

This recreation is thrilling as a result of we’ve got two of the most popular groups within the NFL enjoying one another. Each groups began 0-2 and since then, they’ve each been on fireplace with the Titans going 7-1 and the Bengals going 6-2 over the previous eight weeks. 

This recreation can also be thrilling as a result of it is a playoff rematch between groups that could not be extra completely different. The Bengals are more than pleased to show every recreation they play right into a shootout, as a result of they know most groups cannot sustain, however the Titans wish to flip every recreation to be a back-alley brawl the place they hit you over the pinnacle with a metal chair earlier than punching you within the face. 

The Titans solely know one fashion of soccer: They’ll shut you down with their protection, give the ball to Derrick Henry on offense after which pray that Ryan Tannehill does not mess something up, which is what he did for Tennessee when these two groups met within the playoffs final season (He threw three interceptions). 

As for the Bengals, if Joe Burrow will get safety, he’ll cube you up. The one downside is that there isn’t any method to know if he’ll get any safety in opposition to a Titans protection that SACKED HIM NINE TIMES in final 12 months’s playoff recreation. Now, final 12 months does not essentially matter, but it surely form of does right here, as a result of the Titans protection is on tempo to have MORE sacks in 2022 than they did in 2021. The Titans defensive entrance in opposition to the Bengals offensive line is the unstoppable drive in opposition to the immovable object, besides the other. It is extra just like the unstoppable drive in opposition to a cat. 

The most important factor working within the Bengals’ favor is that their offense has develop into extra unpredictable with out Ja’Marr Chase. Though they fell flat on their face of their first recreation with out Chase, the offense has tailored to not having him. Of their previous 9 quarters with out Chase, the Bengals have scored 92 factors, which is a median of 10.2 factors per quarter, which equates out to 40.9 factors over a complete recreation. With Chase out, defenses have not been in a position to determine who’s going to get the ball and Burrow has completed an excellent job of maintaining his opponents guessing. 

If Chase does not play, the Bengals ought to be superb. However, if he’s on the sphere then Burrow ought to thrive. The issue for the Titans is that if they’ve one weak point, it is stopping the cross. They’re surrendering 245.2 yards per recreation by means of the air, which is the eighth-most within the NFL and that is not a weak point you wish to have while you’re enjoying the Bengals. 

This can be a revenge recreation for the Titans, but it surely’s additionally a recreation the Bengals cannot afford to lose. The prediction right here is that this recreation ends similar to final 12 months’s playoff recreation: With an Evan McPherson discipline purpose on the ultimate play. 

The decide: Bengals 23-20 over Titans

Inexperienced Bay (4-7) at Philadelphia (9-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Featured Recreation | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Inexperienced Bay Packers

The Packers’ 2022 season hasn’t fully imploded but, but when they lose to the Eagles on Sunday, we may have hit full implosion as a result of there isn’t any means they’re making the playoffs in the event that they drop to 4-8. Aaron Rodgers is aware of this. Matt LaFleur is aware of this. Everybody in Inexperienced Bay is aware of this. This recreation is the purpose of no return for the Packers’ season. 

If the Packers lose right here, a darkish cloud will hold over the group for the remainder of the 12 months with everybody in Inexperienced Bay questioning whether or not Aaron Rodgers will really return in 2023. If the Packers lose right here, you could possibly make the case that it is likely to be time to start out Jordan Love. You already know what, the Packers ought to simply go forward and inform Rodgers that as a result of the final time he felt threatened by Love’s presence, he responded by successful two straight MVP awards. If the Packers do fall to 4-8 although, beginning Love sooner or later down the stretch would make some sense, simply because it will permit the Packers to see what they’ve in him earlier than they must decide on his fifth-year choice, which they’ve to do that offseason. 

The one optimistic factor for the Packers going into this recreation is that the Eagles all of a sudden do not look so invincible. After beginning 8-0, they’ve gone 1-1 of their previous two video games and so they very simply might have gone 0-2. One cause the Eagles have been struggling is as a result of the offense is in a rut. Over the previous two weeks, Philly is totaling simply 289 yards per recreation, which is a far cry from the 391 yards per recreation they averaged by means of the primary eight weeks. 

The Eagles confronted the Colts and Commanders over the previous two weeks, and like these two groups, the Packers rank within the top-10 in fewest factors allowed. I feel what I am making an attempt to say right here is that the Packers protection would possibly really be capable to decelerate the Eagles. 

Additionally, the Packers offense would possibly really discover some success in opposition to the Eagles. One downside Philly’s protection has had this 12 months is stopping the run, which suggests if the Packers are sensible, they’re going to let A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones each carry the ball 40 occasions every, and to be sincere, that  won’t be a nasty concept contemplating the Packers are 3-1 this season once they rush for 120 yards or extra as a crew (They’re 1-6 once they do not). 

There are plenty of causes to love the Eagles on this spot, however Rodgers is 13-2 in his previous 15 prime-time video games and with the Packers season on the road — and probably his profession — I’ll roll with Inexperienced Bay. If the Packers lose right here, it might be the unofficial finish of an period in Inexperienced Bay and I do not suppose Rodgers is prepared to consider that simply but. 

The decide: Packers 27-24 over Eagles

NFL Week 12 picks: All the remaining

Buccaneers 24-17 over Browns
Dolphins 34-20 over Texans
Jets 20-13 over Bears
Commanders 27-23 over Falcons
Broncos 19-16 over Panthers
Ravens 30-20 over Jaguars
Chargers 34-24 over Cardinals
Seahawks 30-27 over Raiders
Chiefs 30-16 over Rams
49ers 27-20 over Saints
Colts 20-16 over Steelers

Final Week

Finest decide: Final week, I predicted that Zach Wilson would have a complete meltdown and that the Jets would lose to the Patriots and guess what occurred? Zach Wilson had a complete meltdown and the Jets misplaced to the Patriots. The one factor uglier than Wilson’s efficiency in the course of the recreation was his efficiency on the podium throughout his postgame press convention. 

Actually any reply would have been higher than giving that reply. Wilson’s reply was so unhealthy that his defensive teammates are apparently mad at him and since you’ll be able to’t begin a QB who has misplaced the locker room, his coach is now occupied with benching him. 

Worst decide: For the second week in a row, I picked the Broncos to win and for the second week in a row, that call completely backfired in my face. Each week that I miss a Broncos decide, I swear to myself that I am by no means going to select them to win one other recreation, however then I instantly decide them to win one other recreation. Probably the most embarrassing half about selecting them to beat the Raiders final week is that Antonio Brown bought his decide proper. 

I am undecided what all-time low is on the subject of NFL picks, however when a man who as soon as by accident froze his toes in a cryotherapy chamber is selecting video games higher than you, that is when it is to start out re-evaluating each resolution you have ever made in life. 

Lastly, for those who guys have ever puzzled which groups I am really good at selecting, this is a fast have a look at my finest and worst groups on the subject of picks this 12 months. 

Groups I am 9-1 selecting this 12 months (Straight up): Chiefs.
Longest successful streak: Chiefs (Seven straight video games picked appropriately)

Staff I have been the worst at selecting this 12 months (Straight up): Raiders (3-7).
Longest shedding streak: Raiders (4 straight video games picked incorrectly) 

Each different crew is someplace within the center. 

Picks File

Straight up in Week 10: 10-4
SU total: 97-66-1

In opposition to the unfold in Week 10: 8-4-2
ATS total: 76-80-8

Yow will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a kind of issues, he is in all probability ingesting wine and making an attempt to determine learn how to make mashed potatoes.

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