Wed. Mar 22nd, 2023

Forecast fashions are indicating an growing risk of probably disruptive ice throughout elements of the Southern Plains this week. This has been helped by a bitter blast of arctic air that moved by this previous weekend, which has taken maintain within the area.

DALLAS – A cussed battle between an enormous arctic air mass that has settled into the northern Plains and the ever-present warming results of the Gulf of Mexico are going to spend days duking it out throughout the southern Plains and mid-South this week, making a multiday menace of disruptive freezing rain and different winter climate hazards.

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for tens of millions of individuals dwelling in Texas from the Dallas-Fort Value Metroplex southward by Waco and Austin, in addition to to the west into Abilene, San Angelo and Junction.

Freezing rain can even be doable throughout elements of Arkansas and West Tennessee, together with Little Rock and Memphis in these respective states. This can doubtless happen between late Tuesday and Wednesday. Ice accretions might attain upward of a quarter-inch on this area, resulting in energy outages and harmful journey.

Ice Storm Warnings have been issued for these areas, together with as far south as northern Mississippi.


Winter climate alerts are in impact from the southern Plains to the mid-South.
(FOX Climate)


The precipitation was forecast to start Monday morning, with mild drizzle doable alongside the Interstate 35 hall from Oklahoma Metropolis to Dallas. With temperatures under freezing, this was anticipated to fall as freezing drizzle, in line with the FOX Forecast Heart.

On the identical time, precipitation was predicted to develop in West Texas, however the forecast remained a bit unsure. With the arctic entrance draped throughout the area, the place the boundary of freezing air sits throughout this time is important. Areas nicely south of the entrance have been anticipated to stay heat sufficient for only a chilly rain, however freezing rain was extra doubtless simply to the north of the entrance. 


Images taken only a half-mile aside present clear driving circumstances after which a snow-covered roadway on Lake Hefner Parkway in Oklahoma.


A significant crash northbound Loop 820 in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 30, 2023 as freezing rain plagues the Dallas space. 
(Christopher Prepare dinner / @cooktx / Twitter)


A significant crash northbound Loop 820 in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 30, 2023 as freezing rain plagues the Dallas space. 
(Christopher Prepare dinner / @cooktx / Twitter)


A significant crash northbound Loop 820 in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 30, 2023 as freezing rain plagues the Dallas space. 
(Christopher Prepare dinner / @cooktx / Twitter)


A significant crash northbound Loop 820 in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 30, 2023 as freezing rain plagues the Dallas space. 
(Christopher Prepare dinner / @cooktx / Twitter)


A significant crash northbound Loop 820 in Arlington, Texas on Jan. 30, 2023 as freezing rain plagues the Dallas space. 
(Christopher Prepare dinner / @cooktx / Twitter)

Crashes have already been reported throughout the area, with a significant crash reported northbound on Loop 820 in Arlington, Texas, early Monday morning.

“Bridges and overpasses are thought of treacherous,” White Settlement, Texas, police chief Christopher Prepare dinner mentioned in a Tweet. “Folks should decelerate when approaching elevated surfaces.”

This fast-moving band of precipitation was forecast to shift eastward to the Interstate 35 hall by noon and finally transfer out of Texas by Monday night. As much as a tenth-inch of ice accretion was predicted with this primary wave.

“Fortunately, this morning, it is pretty quiet,” FOX Climate meteorologist Britta Merwin mentioned. “However that is simply the evolution of the storm. It is the start. So, our commutes from this level ahead are going to get harder as we actually get into the nooks and crannies of this ice storm.”


A 3-hour radar loop displaying the place rain, snow, sleet or freezing rain is falling proper now.
(FOX Climate)


A second, extra impactful wave of precipitation will start Tuesday morning, with once more a big space of precipitation anticipated to interrupt out in West Texas. A continued push of colder air within the wake of the arctic entrance will permit the freezing line to inch a bit farther south, nicely previous the I-20 hall. 

The FOX Forecast Heart believes this space is the place impacts might be the best, as doubtlessly as much as a half-inch of ice accretion is feasible alongside a line from Abilene in West Texas eastward into North Texas and southern Oklahoma. The precise location of the freezing line, which is able to doubtless wobble north and south all through the day Tuesday, can be key in figuring out the place the best impacts happen. 

FOX Climate’s Jason Frazer has a take a look at the commuter forecast for January 30. 

Proper now, it seems the Dallas-Fort Value Metroplex can be proper on the sting of that line, with upward of a quarter-inch of ice accretion doable. Ought to the freezing line transfer farther south, these numbers might rise. Laptop forecast fashions will not be in settlement on the quantity of precipitation that would fall, and that is resulting in higher-than-usual forecast uncertainty.

“We’re speaking concerning the excessive potential for energy outages,” Merwin mentioned. “And as soon as the ability is out, it’s important to preserve you and your loved ones heat in a protected method. So, that is one thing to observe very carefully.”


Texas freezing rain menace holds into Wednesday

From Tuesday into Wednesday, the FOX Forecast middle expects continued precipitation to fall throughout most of Texas. Whereas precipitation will start to taper off in depth, the presence of freezing drizzle will proceed to complicate the forecast, as a number of hours of freezing drizzle from Tuesday evening into Wednesday might result in a slippery commute Wednesday morning.

What the FOX Forecast Heart is aware of about this week’s wintry mess within the southern Plains and mid-South.
(FOX Climate)


Through the day Wednesday, temperatures will start to thaw out as a consequence of an approaching climate system.

Temperatures will heat above freezing by Wednesday afternoon, ending the specter of extra ice accretion. However with temperatures dropping again under freezing Wednesday evening, refreezing can be doable in a single day and into early Thursday, which might result in a number of cases of black ice for the Thursday morning commute throughout most of West and North Texas.

Ice threats over the following three days.

General, the forecast requires upward of a quarter- to half-inch of ice to accrete beginning alongside the I-20 hall in West Texas, stretching eastward towards I-35, and finally into elements of southeastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas. A second space of ice upward of a quarter-inch can be more and more doubtless throughout different elements of Arkansas and into West Tennessee.

Usually, ice accretions of lower than a quarter-inch are thought of to be a nuisance, however impacts begin to turn out to be disruptive as soon as quantities shut in on a half-inch or extra.

Ice impacts explainer.

(FOX Climate)

At round a half-inch, energy outages can turn out to be quite a few, and driving is taken into account hazardous.

Harmful journey is probably going, particularly throughout commute occasions, together with some energy outages. This can doubtless be a memorable ice storm for some, and there’s a risk that some places might attain the edge of crippling ice in extra of a half-inch, ought to the chilly air sink farther south than laptop forecast fashions counsel or precipitation falls in better quantities than forecast.


The potential for energy outages by Wednesday morning.

The potential for disruptive climate has some states making ready for the mess within the week forward.

ERCOT, Texas’ electrical energy grid supervisor, mentioned it’s monitoring the specter of frozen precipitation for the Lone Star State however believes it’s going to have sufficient electrical technology to satisfy the calls for of its greater than 26 million clients.

Laptop forecast fashions present the specter of precipitation diminishing by the point the primary weekend of February arrives.

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